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Risk of dying with Covid and from a vaccine about the same?

Updated: Sep 9, 2021

Now, I know you can't trust everything you read on Twitter (!), but on 30th March, @ChrissyJane22 posted a photo of a Freedom of Information request reply from Public Health Scotland, which stated that, up to 26th February, 2,207 people had died in Scotland within 28 days of a Covid vaccine:


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Assuming that's legitimate, let's crunch some numbers:


As of 26th Feb, a total of 1,651,156 vaccines had been given in Scotland (1,578,532 1st dose and 72,624 2nd dose).

2,207 deaths within 28 days is 0.13%.

With vaccination starting on 8th December that's for an 11.5 week timeframe.


The population of Scotland is 5,438,100.

The first Covid death in Scotland was reported on 14th March 2020. 11.5 weeks from that date takes us to 1st June 2020.

At 1st June 2020 2,363 people had died within 28 days of a positive test, which is 0.04% of the population.

To date (30th March), 7,596 people in Scotland have died within 28 days of a positive test - that's 0.14% of the population.


So, the risk of dying within 28 days of having a vaccine and within 28 days of having a positive test is looking about the same.


If you test positive, the infection to death percentage is currently around 4.5% in Scotland, but what are the chances of catching SARS-CoV-2?


As at 30th March, there had only been 217,890 cases/positive tests in Scotland - that's 4% of the population.

That means 96% of the population have never even tested positive for Covid in the last year!


Personally, I'm taking my chances with the virus and a healthy immune system.








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